Inflation and the Black Market Exchange Rate in a Repressed Market

(25) Also, the black market rate grows proportionately to spending on each good. (26) C. Simulation of black market rate in two goods model The central bank supplies dollars through rationing in proportion to the export revenues (Xt) ...

Inflation and the Black Market Exchange Rate in a Repressed Market

This paper presents a stylized general equilibrium model of the Venezuelan economy. The model explains how the recent sharp fall in oil revenue combines with foreign exchange rationing to produce a steep rise in inflation. Counterintuitively, a devaluation of the official exchange rate could temporarily reduce inflation. The model also explains how the hyper-depreciation of the black market exchange rate reflects prices in the most distorted goods markets.

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